Apple warns memory costs will keep rising and Macs and iPads will be scarce through the holidays

Apple just posted its best July-to-September quarter ever, but on the company's earnings call Monday, Nov. 2, new CEO John Ternus warned that the memory chips inside Apple's devices are getting more expensive and will keep getting pricier after December. Apple also expects to have fewer Macs and iPads than customers want from October through December, the quarter that covers Black Friday and the holidays, mostly because it cannot get enough memory.

It was the first earnings report for Ternus, who ran hardware engineering before he took over from Tim Cook on Sept. 1. Apple's earnings release shows revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% from a year earlier. iPhone and Mac sales grew even though both were already short on units, while iPad fell 10%.

Why memory is squeezing Apple

Every iPhone, Mac and iPad depends on memory chips, including the RAM a processor uses to keep apps open while you work. Chipmakers are prioritizing servers for artificial intelligence, which pay more, leaving less supply for phones and computers, as our guide to the RAM price crunch explains. Ternus was blunt about it: "What we're seeing with memory pricing right now is unprecedented."

Apple has cushioned the blow with memory it bought earlier at lower prices, but Ternus expects that benefit to shrink. CFO Kevan Parekh expects gross margin, the share of each sale left after manufacturing costs, to fall from 47.9% in July through September to 45% to 46% in October through December, mostly because of memory. The 47.9% figure included about one extra point from tariff refunds. Without it, Apple would go from keeping nearly $47 of every $100 in sales to keeping $45 to $46.

Fewer Macs and iPads through December

Chief operating officer Sabih Khan expects Mac and iPad shortages from October through December, driven mainly by memory. The iPhone Duo, the foldable that went on sale Oct. 23, is also constrained. Demand has been stronger than Apple planned for, Khan said, and he would not predict when supply will catch up.

Apple did not say which models will be hardest to find. It still expects revenue for those three months to grow 7% to 10% year over year, a forecast Parekh said already accounts for the tight supply.

Will prices go up again?

Apple already raised prices on Macs and iPads at the end of June and on iPhones in September. The A17 Pro iPad mini, for example, launched at $499 in 2024 and went to $599 in June, as we noted when Apple announced the new OLED iPad mini.

When an analyst asked whether prices could keep climbing, neither Khan nor Parekh confirmed or ruled it out. Khan said Apple is working to secure more memory, and Parekh pointed to other levers, such as cheaper non-memory components and using up the memory Apple already has on hand.

What this means for Black Friday shoppers

Nothing Apple said suggests a Mac or iPad will get cheaper if you hold out until 2027, since memory costs are expected to keep rising and the cheaper chips Apple stockpiled will matter less and less. That is our reading of its comments. Apple has not announced another price increase.

If you already know which model you need and a retailer discounts it on Black Friday, Nov. 27, check the delivery date before you pay, since a good price does not guarantee quick shipping when stock is tight. If you do not need one now, nothing here is a reason to buy early. PC makers face the same memory costs, and our buy now or wait guide breaks down which components are worth buying now.